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10.05.2016

Современные методы и инструменты оценки коммерческой эффективности инновационных проектов

Сергеева Анастасия Валерьевна
Магистерская программа «Международный бизнес» Санкт-Петербургский государственный экономический университет, г. Санкт-Петербург, Российская Федерация
Турова Ольга Александровна
Магистерская программа «Международный бизнес» Санкт-Петербургский государственный экономический университет, г. Санкт-Петербург, Российская Федерация
Аннотация: в настоящее время традиционные методы оценки эффективности инновационных проектов зачастую не отражает реальной ситуации. Оценка экономической и социальной эффективности инновационных проектов предприятий должна рассчитываться в соответствии с национальными и международными стандартами оценки эффективности проектов и основываться на специфических и фундаментальных методологических принципах. В статье представлено, что в дополнение к традиционным методам, следует использовать и другие, среди которых более подходящими являются методы реальных опционов и система сбалансированных показателей.
Ключевые слова: методы оценки эффективности, инновационные проекты, методология оценки, эффективность, метод реальных опционов, система сбалансированных показателей
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Introduction

Recently, the economy has changed the paradigm of development from industrial to post-industrial, which is characterized by the transition to a knowledge economy, and innovation. The essence of innovation is changing the nature of economic growth - in the transition from extensive development based on traditional technologies, organization and structure of the economy to intensive growth through innovation [5].

1. Current approaches for the commercial viability of innovation projects assessment

The modern concept of evaluating the effectiveness of an innovation project based on the estimated future cash flows discounted to their present value.

The effectiveness of the innovation project - is the financial return of the project, which makes it attractive for developers, investors, and consumers.

Financial return of the project is represented by the net present value in the year of commercialization (the present value of free cash flow it generates.)

The problem of evaluating the effectiveness of the innovation project is due to the fact that the output of the project in the future is reduced by three known reasons:

  • the time value of money;
  • the risk of technical failure of the project;
  • opportunities for growth R & D costs.

Above reasons caused by high levels of uncertainty of the project at each stage of the life cycle. Thus, a comprehensive assessment of the economic efficiency of the innovation project - is an assessment of the commercial viability of the project.

The methodology for calculating the efficiency of the innovation project depends on the stage of development of the project:

1) The project is nearing completion;

2) In the initial stage of development.

In the first case, the calculation of the efficiency of the innovation project can be carried out under standardized rules of evaluation of the project, since it is assumed that R&D are completed, the project settings are understandable.

The second case - the most problematic, because the methodology for assessment of the project in the initial stages is complicated considering the risk factor of innovation and above all technical risk factors.

We will try to focus on modern approaches to the evaluation of the commercial efficiency of innovation approaches in more details [3].

1.1. Real option approach

The use of real options to calculate the efficiency of innovation projects is because it allows you to define the risks of the project at each of its stages, from inception to completion.

T.J. Seppa and T. Laamanen use a method of real options to determine the probability of the future outcome of the projects at the earliest stages [7].

According to the findings Yeo Oiu, most investors prefer to abandon the use of the traditional NPV method to estimate the cost of the project, as it is associated with more than the forecast errors in the cash flow that generates the project, especially in the early stages of its development, and in order to overcome these problem resorted to the method of real options [8].

Davila, Foster and Gupta provided a practical example of a real option at different stages of the innovation project. In particular, investors have the right to exercise the option at the very first stage of the project, however, the exercise of the option is delayed until such time as its risk is minimized [2].

Applied to innovation projects real option is central to project management tool today in terms of liquidity. Real options in addition to NPV - is the addition of favorable market opportunities.

1.2. Balanced Scorecard Model

New approach (BSM) considers the organization in terms of four interrelated and balanced aspects on which data is collected and then analyzed:

  • Learning and growth prospects;
  • In-house processes, internal business processes;
  • Focus on the consumer, the consumer perspective;
  • The financial aspect.

Maintaining a balance between these parameters characterize the future effectiveness of the organization in the long period of time.

BSM can be used to evaluate innovation projects. The system looks at many characteristics of the project, including:

  • The financial cost - it is based on the discounted cash flow;
  • Strategic value - many of the projects, in addition to the cost of NPV, can have strategic value, which should also be considered;
  • The interests of different groups of project participants - owners, co-investors, different sponsors, and the State;
  • Implementation of a risk;
  • Motivation of managers - this aspect is very difficult to estimate, but it is believed that this factor is one of the most important in the evaluation of the project [6].

The use of such a classification is very convenient in the selection of projects. In contrast to conventional methods of comparison, this technique can eliminate the project, which is attractive only from a financial point of view, but carries great risks, poor motivation of the team and a low strategic value.

Also, according to many experts, the balanced scorecard is reduced only to the justification of the financial performance of the project and therefore can not be fully used as a comprehensive tool for evaluation of the project [1].

Conclusion

The current stage of development of the Russian economy is characterized by the transition from a commodity-type development to innovation, based on the knowledge economy and new technologies. Innovation development requires adequate financial support. In addition it attracts public funds and private investment. This in turn raises the issue of return on investment. At the same time, the existing methodology for the evaluation of investment projects do not fully take into account the specifics of the innovation process:

  • increased risks;
  • long payback periods;
  • features of the life cycle of the innovation project;
  • specific sources and forms of financing.

All this is actualized to provide certain adjustments to the traditional methodology to assess the effectiveness of innovation projects and contributed to the emergence of modern approaches that overcome some of the problems that faced the traditional approaches to valuation [4].

The most appropriate and promising method for evaluating the effectiveness of the innovation project, in our opinion, is a real option. The proposed methodology is based on a comprehensive assessment that takes into account the probability of the outcome of the innovation project at each stage of development.

References:

1. Belolipetskii V.G. Financial management: Manual. - M.: KNORUS, 2008;

2. Davila, Foster and Gupta. Stages Venture Capital: Empirical Evidence of The Differential Roles of Early Venture Late Rounds//Retrieved October, 10;

3. Dukhonin E.Y., Isaev D.V., Pavement E.L., etc. Performance Management. The concept of Business Performance Management. - Moscow: Alpina Business Books, 2005;

4. Meyer M. Evaluation of the effectiveness of the business. – Moscow, 2004.

5. Nabibulina E.S. Priorities for Action in 2008 and the medium term//Economist. - 2008. - № 4. - p. 9;

6. Nikolaeva O.E., Alekseeva O.V. Strategic management accounting. - Moscow: Editorial URSS, 2003;

7. Seppa T., Laamanen T. Valuation of Venture Capital Investments: Empirical Evidence/Helsinki University of Technology, 2007;

8. Yeo&Oiu. The value of management flexibility a real approach to investment evaluation//International journal of project management. — Vol. № 21. — P. 243-250.